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Earl Aagaard’s opinions about everything that interests him. Og also enjoys gardening, travel, reading, woodbutchery, and lots of other stuff.

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CAN YOU BELIEVE THE WEATHER…..?

That’s the title of THIS ARTICLE in a recent New Scientist magazine….. It’s major subject is how to measure the accuracy of forecasts, but one paragraph especially caught my eye:

However many weather stations you have they will never be enough. The famous butterfly effect of chaos theory, which can turn a tiny air movement in one part of the globe into a storm thousands of miles away, is all too real: minuscule errors or omissions in the initial conditions can blow up into hugely erroneous forecasts. That chaotic behaviour is why two and three-day forecasts are so much more reliable than five-day forecasts: those extra few days are enough for the weather at a given location to develop in a completely different way.

Keep this in mind….“two- and three-day forecasts are so much more reliable than five-day forecasts….”.....the next time they tell you what our climate is going to be like 50 years from now!!

Posted by .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) on 02/07 at 08:38 AM

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